Monday, February 12, 2007

Nexavar vs. liver cancer: the winner is......

Frankly, me, and every other ONXX shareholder, as data strong enough to stop the trial has boosted ONXX by 95% so far today.

Read the linked article for something to ponder, though. ONXX partner Bayer projects PEAK Nexavar sales at ~$650M even WITH a liver cancer (5th most common cancer) approval, even with ~$130M in sales in the less than a year that Nexavar has been on the market. (And selling at a current annual run rate in excess of $150M.)

Is this yet another example of underestimating the market potential of targeted drugs? (Remember how Daniel Vasella said at introduction that NVS expects Gleevec sales of a few hundred million dollars a year? (vs. $2.6B in 2006.))

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