Wednesday, February 21, 2007

2006 kinase drug performance

With the release of OSI's 4Q and year-end financial statements, the sales results for all 12 kinase-targeting drugs are finally available for the year 2006.

And what a year it was.

Kinase-modulating therapies (KDs, or kinase drugs) generated $8.5B in revenue in 2006, with 53% growth over 2005. Both figures are especially impressive given the fact that five of the drugs have been on the market only since December, 2005, with ex-US approvals for these and others still growing.

A subset of these drugs with anti-angiogenesis effects totaled $4.6B, with 80% year over year growth. Drugs specifically targeting VEGF as cancer therapies totaled $2.1B, representing an 88% growth rate.

A quick glance at the 4th quarter indicates $2.5B in KD sales, equating to an annualized $10B. Assuming a simple organic growth rate of 20%, we're looking at $12B in sales, prior to expanded approvals and new product introductions.

New KD introductions could include, at a minimum, Tykerb (GSK), Torisel (WYE), Arxxant (Lilly), and potentially Tasignia (NVS). (Tykerb and Tasignia could cannibalize some existing sales.)

All told, we might see KDs contributing nearing $15B in annual sales in '07, with greater growth still to come.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Nice table - thanks.