Nexavar vs. liver cancer: the winner is......

Frankly, me, and every other ONXX shareholder, as data strong enough to stop the trial has boosted ONXX by 95% so far today.

Read the linked article for something to ponder, though. ONXX partner Bayer projects PEAK Nexavar sales at ~$650M even WITH a liver cancer (5th most common cancer) approval, even with ~$130M in sales in the less than a year that Nexavar has been on the market. (And selling at a current annual run rate in excess of $150M.)

Is this yet another example of underestimating the market potential of targeted drugs? (Remember how Daniel Vasella said at introduction that NVS expects Gleevec sales of a few hundred million dollars a year? (vs. $2.6B in 2006.))

Wyeth's Torisel granted priority review

The first mTor inhibitor has been granted priority review. Approval is requested for RCC, which puts it in direct competition with Nexavar and Sutent. As Torisel is fast-tracked, performance is likely impressive and perhaps superior. I wonder if Onyx/Bayer or Pfizer is already talking to Wyeth about conducting combination trials.

Nexavar a dud in melanoma

Best article summarizing the disappointing news that Nexavar did not meaningfully outperform the current standard of care for melanoma. Not sure if this is company spin, or not, but per the article, ONXX is locking in on anti-angiogenic uses of Nexavar, which could be a sign that Nexavar's RAF efficacy is dubious.

Other interesting item from the article: 10% of Nexavar use is off-label.

btw: I'll be out of town for a week starting tomorrow, so no posts likely in the meantime.

Cancer kinase inhibitors for hypertension too?

Researchers believe that Nexavar (competitor to Sutent) may prevent pulmonary hypertension, in addition to its’ anti-cancer properties. (The article doesn’t state which target Nexavar blocks to counter hypertension.)

It’s been long talked about that cancer and inflammation are linked diseases, with some even suggesting that they’re the same disease (and managed by IKK kinase), so the Nexavar finding isn’t shocking, but it’s most important implication may be an extended application for this class of drug.

In spite of this news, stock in Onyx (Nexavar's maker) dropped 1.8%. I still think Onyx is a buy, as I detailed here:

http://cogentpassion.blogspot.com/2006/06/i-bought-onxx-onyx-pharm.html

Nexavar vs. Sutent

Onyx just posted 3Q results. Nexavar sales rose 41% to $45M for the quarter versus $63M and 75% growth by Sutent over the same period. (Pfizer also notes 7,500 Sutent patients vs. 6,000 last quarter.)

It's probably too early to declare a winner (the winner may be determined by who does the best, quickest job expanding the label), but Sutent (Pfizer) almost doubled Onyx/Bayer's new revenue for the quarter.

I suspect that Onyx stock may take a hit based on the comparison to Sutent, but these figures actually put Onyx on track to surpass '06 Nexavar sales. A good 4th quarter with 33% growth to $59M would put Nexavar '06 sales in excess of $160M. I'm pretty sure that consensus estimates were around $140M.

Sutent results really look strong, especially considering that Pfizer has a not-yet-mature oncology sales force.