DNA making big immunology bet

I hadn't realized that DNA had raised their immunology efforts to such an explicit priority as mentioned in this article (and why would they?)

One interesting question for DNA: will their solutions also be biologicals, as most of their current oncology offerings? They certainly have the expertise to do so, but you could argue that other companies (particularly Amgen) have a big head start in this area.

The other interesting stat in this article: DNA went 15 for 15 in it's critical trials (Avastin, etc.), which the company pegs the odds of success at 1 in 300,000,000.

Not to diminish anything that DNA has accomplished, but I think this stat would only be correct if these 15 compounds were developed in one insanely profitable month of serial chemical synthesis. The 15/15 1:300M odds are built on a probability of one success at 1 in 9155 (.0109%), which I think is Genentech's parallel for the old saw of "1 in 10,000 compounds ever receive FDA approvals."

The best analysis would be to identify which starting point these 15 success all have in common. For fun, let's assume the accomplishment is 15 straight compounds to go from IND to FDA approval. If you believe as some do that an IND compound has a 1 in 10 chance of FDA approval, then Genentech's accomplishment has odds more like 1:32768. (I'm a little rusty, but I think the chance of doing anything 15 times in a row is 2 (to the) 15th (32768) times the probability of one success. Anyone want to check my math?)

UPDATE, based upon actual math that works: 1:300M represents 15 consecutive successful trials each with a ~27% chance of success, which is probably DNA's assumed success rate for a compound reaching Phase I trials. (The Milken template suggests 20% for NCEs, and acknowledges that biologicals have slightly higher success rates.)

It's more likely, though, that the 15 trials cited by DNA include multiple trials for single compounds, and various stages of trials (i.e. does this figure include Rituxan trials for RA? If so, Phase 1 trials really weren't risky (or perhaps even necessary).

No matter the math involved, DNA's accomplishment is impressive!

Pfizer's pipeline

forbes gives the highlights of Pfizer's pipeline, which includes 3 drugs targeting kinases:

Axitinib - Sutent successor, firstly for RCC, with picomolar potency vs.VEGFR 1, 2 & 3 and nanomolar potency against PDGFR-beta and KIT, which, according to Forbes is "moving soon into final stage trials for thyroid breast and lung cancer."

CP-751871 - IGFR-1 Ab for prostate and lung cancer, now in P2.

CP-690550: JAK3 inhibitor for RA

I'll dig into Pfizer's news to see what else they're touting.....

Gleevec for RA?

Gleevec almost completely prevented the development of the rheumatoid arthritis-like disease in the mice, per Stanford researchers.

Incidentally, good RA summary: "Rheumatoid arthritis is a painful, chronic autoimmune disorder, characterized by inflammation of the lining of the joints. It affects more than 2 million Americans; up to half of those with the disease are disabled after 15 years due to disfigured joints. Standard therapy for rheumatoid arthritis now includes agents that suppress the immune system, but many patients do not benefit from such treatments. They do not get adequate reduction in the symptoms and signs of disease; they may also continue to have damage to their joints or develop side effects that make continued use of such therapies impossible. Thus, new approaches are needed."